The World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle is nearing its thrilling conclusion, with only a few key matches remaining. The battle for the top two spots has intensified, with South Africa, India, and Australia emerging as the leading contenders. South Africa has already secured its place in the final at Lord’s following a decisive win over Pakistan. In this article, we will break down the qualification scenarios for all nine teams, examining their current form, remaining matches, and the complex possibilities ahead as they strive to claim a spot in the WTC Final 2025.
Latest Updated World Test Championship Points Table
| Rank | Team | Matches | Wins | Losses | Draws | Penalty | Points (PT) | Percentage (PCT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 66.67% |
| 2 | Australia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | -10 | 118 | 61.46% |
| 3 | India | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | -2 | 114 | 52.78% |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | -3 | 81 | 48.21% |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45.45% |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | -22 | 114 | 43.18% |
| 7 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 8 | 2 | -8 | 45 | 31.25% |
| 8 | Pakistan | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | -3 | 40 | 30.30% |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 24.24% |
Qualification Scenarios for All Teams in WTC 2023-25
South Africa (QUALIFIED TO FINAL)
South Africa has firmly secured its place in the WTC 2025 Final at Lord’s, having played exceptional cricket throughout the cycle. They began their campaign with a dominant win over India by an innings and 32 runs, followed by a series of strong performances. Despite some setbacks with three consecutive losses, they bounced back with crucial victories against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. With 7 wins from their 10 matches, they are the first team to secure qualification.
Remaining Matches:
- South Africa vs Pakistan – 1 Match (Home)
Chances of Qualification: 100% (Already qualified)
India (15% Chance of Qualification)
India’s path to qualification has become increasingly complex after a series of disappointing results. A recent win in Perth has rejuvenated their campaign, but their fate now hinges on several external factors. India must secure a win against Australia in Sydney, while hoping for Sri Lanka to win both of their remaining Tests against Australia in January. If these results materialize, India could still have a slim chance of qualification.
Remaining Matches:
- India vs Australia – 1 Match (Away)
Wins required from 1 match: 1 win (and depend on SL vs AUS results)
Chances of Qualification: 15%
Australia (90% Chance of Qualification)
As the reigning WTC champions, Australia is on track to secure their spot in the 2025 final. With 10 wins and 4 losses, they are in a strong position. To guarantee qualification, Australia needs just 1 win from their remaining 3 matches. If they win their home match against India and even just draw against Sri Lanka, they will confirm their qualification.
Remaining Matches:
- Australia vs India – 1 Match (Home)
- Australia vs Sri Lanka – 2 Matches (Away)
Wins required from 3 matches: 1
Chances of Qualification: 90%
Sri Lanka (20% Chance of Qualification)
Sri Lanka’s qualification hopes rest on a perfect run through their remaining matches. They’ve shown resilience with a 2-0 win over New Zealand, but they must win all of their remaining matches to have a chance. With 2 home Tests against Australia, Sri Lanka will need a perfect outcome and also depend on other results to remain in the race.
Remaining Matches:
- Sri Lanka vs Australia – 2 Matches (Home)
Wins required from 2 matches: 2 (and depend on other teams)
Chances of Qualification: 20%
England (0% Chance of Qualification)
England’s hopes of qualification have been dashed. Despite being the team with the most matches played in this cycle, their inconsistent performances have left them with no realistic path to the final. After an early loss to Australia and a draw against Sri Lanka, England has failed to make up ground. Their involvement in spoiling New Zealand’s qualification hopes, however, has added drama to the final stages.
Chances of Qualification: 0% (No path remaining)
New Zealand (0% Chance of Qualification)
New Zealand has had a challenging campaign, with 7 wins and 7 losses. Their hopes of qualifying were effectively eliminated after consecutive losses to England. With no remaining matches in the cycle, they are out of contention for the final.
Remaining Matches: None
Chances of Qualification: 0%
Pakistan (0% Chance of Qualification)
Pakistan, with only 4 wins in 11 matches, has struggled throughout the cycle. They face a tough task against South Africa, and even with a strong finish, their qualification hopes are already mathematically impossible.
Remaining Matches:
- Pakistan vs South Africa – 1 Match (Away)
- Pakistan vs West Indies – 2 Matches (Home)
Chances of Qualification: 0%
Bangladesh (0% Chance of Qualification)
Bangladesh’s hopes of reaching the final were dashed by losses to top sides like Sri Lanka and South Africa. Despite a win against Pakistan, they are out of contention for the WTC 2025 final.
Chances of Qualification: 0%
West Indies (0% Chance of Qualification)
The West Indies have been at the bottom of the table for most of the cycle. With only 2 wins from 11 matches, their chances of qualifying have evaporated. A 3-0 loss to England further sealed their fate.
Remaining Matches:
- West Indies vs Pakistan – 2 Matches (Away)
Chances of Qualification: 0%
What Are the Chances of Each Team Qualifying for the WTC 2025 Final?
As the final stages of the WTC 2023-25 cycle unfold, the path to the Lord’s final is becoming clearer. South Africa has already secured their spot, while Australia is in a commanding position to join them. India’s qualification relies on external results, while Sri Lanka still has a slim chance if everything goes in their favor. Teams like England, New Zealand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and West Indies have seen their hopes dashed, focusing now on rebuilding for future cycles.
In the coming weeks, fans will eagerly watch to see who will join South Africa in what promises to be a historic WTC Final in 2025.
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