Introduction
India’s qualification for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final is hanging by a thread following the tense conclusion of the India vs Australia 4th Test in Melbourne. Heading into this critical match, India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) stood at 55.88%, placing them third in the standings. With the last match of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series coming up, fans and analysts alike are asking: Can India still make it to the WTC final if they draw or lose the Melbourne Test?
India’s Current Position in the WTC Standings
Before the Melbourne Test, India’s PCT was 55.88%, securing them the third spot in the WTC standings. However, Australia was already ahead with a PCT of 58.89%. South Africa, already having secured their spot in the WTC final, is leading the table with a strong 66.67% PCT. Given this scenario, India’s qualification chances heavily depend on the results of their remaining matches, as well as other key series outcomes.
Can India Qualify for the WTC Final After the Melbourne Test?
The qualification pathways for India are quite clear, but every possible result brings a new set of challenges:
Scenario 1: India Loses the Melbourne Test
If India loses the Melbourne Test, their PCT will drop to approximately 52.78%, making it difficult to qualify for the WTC final. However, if they manage to win the final Test in Sydney, India’s PCT will rise to 55.26%. Even then, their qualification will not be entirely in their control. For India to qualify, Sri Lanka must deny Australia a victory in their upcoming series. If Sri Lanka wins even one match, India may overtake Australia, with the latter’s PCT likely dropping below India’s.
Scenario 2: India Draws the Melbourne Test
A draw in Melbourne would provide India with 122 points and a PCT of 53.50%. This would still keep their qualification hopes alive, but much depends on the Sri Lanka vs Australia series. If Australia wins both their matches against Sri Lanka, India will drop behind Australia in the points table. However, if Sri Lanka manages to draw or win, India could still stay ahead and make it to the final.
Scenario 3: India Wins the Melbourne Test
Although winning the Melbourne Test seems unlikely given their current position, it would significantly improve India’s qualification chances. A victory would raise India’s PCT, placing them in a much stronger position to secure a spot in the WTC final.
Key Performances Keeping India’s Hopes Alive
While India faces a steep challenge in Melbourne, certain performances have kept their hopes alive. The rise of young batsman Nitish Kumar Reddy, who scored a resilient 171-ball century on Day 3, is one such bright spot. His century in India’s chase for survival showcased the kind of resilience needed under high-pressure situations. Alongside Reddy, Washington Sundar has made valuable contributions, scoring a patient fifty, which has helped India fight for a potential draw.
Despite these performances, India still trails Australia by a significant margin and needs a strong partnership to avoid a follow-on. The contributions of Reddy and Sundar in the coming sessions could prove crucial in India’s bid for a comeback.
The Road Ahead: India’s WTC Qualification Hinges on Sri Lanka and Australia
India’s qualification scenario depends not only on their own performance but also on the outcome of the Sri Lanka vs Australia series. For India to qualify for the 2025 WTC final, Australia must fail to win at least one of their two Tests against Sri Lanka. With the race for the final being so tight, every result counts, and India’s qualification hopes remain alive, albeit outside their direct control.
Conclusion
India’s WTC qualification fate is on a knife’s edge, but with a bit of luck and strong performances from their players, they still have a chance to make it to the final. All eyes will be on the remaining Tests in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, as well as Sri Lanka’s performance against Australia.
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